Up next in 10
The Buffalo Sabres absolutely made the right call.
Letting Alex Tuch leave for an 8-year, $10.5 million-per-year contract with the Washington Capitals was painfulābut necessary.
Instead, Buffalo invested in its future by locking up Zach Benson for seven years at $7.5 million annually.
But here's the twist...
D.A. thinks Tuch may have actually made the worse financial decision.
Not because of today's contract.
Because of everything that comes AFTER hockey.
A hometown kid from just outside Syracuse. A lifelong Sabres fan. Imagine becoming the face of the franchise that finally brought the Stanley Cup to Buffalo.
The endorsements.
The appearances.
The business opportunities.
The lifelong connection to Western New York.
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0:00
The Sabres did the right thing. But, I
0:02
can make the argument that Alex Tuch
0:05
actually made a poor financial decision.
0:10
Locking up Zach Benson at 7 and 1/2
0:13
million dollars a year at his age is
0:17
something you got to do if you're the
0:18
Sabres.
0:20
For Alex Tuch, I think he may have left
0:23
money on the table.
0:26
>> [music]
0:30
>> Let's just compare these two numbers.
0:33
Zach Benson's 21 years old, they gave
0:35
him 7 years. Alex Tuch is 30 years old,
0:39
Capitals gave him 8 years. Would you
0:42
rather bank on the next seven of Zach
0:45
Benson, full all seven, or the next
0:49
eight of Alex Tuch? The answer is a
0:51
no-brainer.
0:52
Which is why especially getting a lower
0:54
rate for Benson means it's the right
0:57
move.
0:58
Nobody in Buffalo
1:01
I think would ever begrudge
1:04
Alex Tuch because of his role in
1:08
snapping the drought.
1:10
Tuch grew up a Sabres fan. It's a great
1:13
story. He wanted to play for the
1:15
franchise. He was clearly a leader when
1:17
they needed a leader most. There's no
1:20
doubt they don't get back to the
1:21
playoffs unless he is playing a major
1:23
part. All of that means it's easy to
1:26
root for Alex Tuch and it's easy not to
1:29
have bad feelings or resentment if he's
1:33
going to go out and just get more money
1:35
than the Sabres are going to offer. And
1:37
frankly, the Sabres just can't in their
1:40
right minds, with where they are in
1:43
their evolution, give a 30-year-old
1:46
player 10 and 1/2 million dollars per
1:49
year for the next 8 years.
1:53
Here's why I I wonder if it's a poor
1:56
financial decision for Alex Tuck. You
1:59
look at that number and go, well, you're
2:01
going to leave for 8 years at 10 and a
2:03
half million dollars per, why not? And a
2:06
bulk of that is in signing bonuses, so
2:08
yeah, you got to go. But I'm just going
2:10
to bring this to your attention.
2:12
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2:25
Alex Tuck
2:26
would be a homegrown guy. Now, granted,
2:29
he's from Syracuse, but it
2:31
a New York state guy who grew up a
2:34
Sabres fan in a Sabres town and
2:38
ultimately could win a Stanley Cup with
2:41
the Buffalo Sabres. Because if you look
2:44
at the Capitals' potential and you look
2:45
at the Sabres' potential, I would say
2:47
right now, you'd put your money on
2:49
Buffalo, not Washington. It was the
2:52
Sabres who surged to more than 100
2:54
points last season and won the Atlantic
2:57
division and won a round of the
2:59
postseason and got to game seven of the
3:01
second round. And a bounce of the puck
3:03
here or there and they'd be in the
3:05
conference finals. It were the It was
3:06
the Capitals who did not make the
3:09
playoffs.
3:10
You're a Capitals organization waiting
3:12
to see what Alexander Ovechkin does. I
3:16
think the future is not only brighter
3:18
with the Sabres, but also the reality
3:20
that here and the now is brighter with
3:21
the Sabres. And I bring this up because
3:25
Fanatics Fest is coming up in New York
3:27
City.
3:29
And at Fanatics Fest, they have
3:31
all these great athletes come by and and
3:33
you can meet and greet them and there's
3:35
a there's a cost for taking photos and
3:38
they just released the cost of taking
3:40
pictures with the world champion New
3:43
York Knicks.
3:44
And you know how much Jalen Brunson
3:47
commands for one photo at Fanatics Fest?
3:50
For one photo.
3:52
it will cost you
3:54
nearly a thousand dollars. $1,000. It's
3:58
like 980 bucks or something like that.
4:00
If you want to take a photo with Jalen
4:02
Brunson.
4:03
Now, the NBA is going to be bigger than
4:06
the NHL. What the the Knicks just
4:08
accomplished, Jalen Brunson is their
4:10
everything, and that that guy kind of
4:12
can't exist in the NHL. It's not the
4:14
same thing. Alex Tuch wouldn't play that
4:16
role of the do everything clutch guy,
4:18
etc. But
4:20
think about the haul that Jalen Brunson
4:23
is going to pull in simply by virtue of
4:25
being the main Nick that broke the
4:29
53-year drought.
4:31
He will make that day at Fanatics Fest
4:34
if 500 people spend the thousand dollars
4:37
half a million dollars that day for
4:39
about an hour of work. Now, granted,
4:41
Fanatics is going to take their cut, but
4:43
let's just round that thing and and say
4:45
he's going to make 300, 400,000 dollars
4:48
in his pocket
4:50
for an hour's worth of taking photos,
4:52
simply for his role in breaking a
4:54
championship drought.
4:56
What would Alex Tuch's value be for the
4:59
rest of his life
5:01
if he won a Stanley Cup with the Buffalo
5:03
Sabres?
5:04
Being a guy that grew up a Sabres fan.
5:08
Now, he could win a Stanley Cup in
5:10
Washington, but what is that value?
5:13
The fact is, if you are Mark Messier of
5:17
the '94 Rangers, if you are a LeBron of
5:19
the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, if you are
5:23
the man or one of the men who break a
5:26
significant curse, break a significant
5:29
jinx or drought, think David Ortiz of
5:31
the '04 Red Sox, you live forever making
5:34
money.
5:35
Forever. And it's really good money
5:38
nowadays. Really, really good, as
5:40
evidenced by Fanatics Fest.
5:43
So, let's just say
5:46
the Sabres were a million dollars apart
5:48
per season
5:50
for Alex Tuch.
5:52
Instead, he took the the money in
5:53
Washington.
5:55
Over 8 years, that's $8 million. I
5:58
guarantee it. You win a Stanley Cup in
6:00
Buffalo, you'll make that $8 million
6:03
back in endorsements for the rest of
6:04
your life. Look, all the guys from the
6:06
'90s Bills live forever with
6:09
endorsements and media roles, etc., and
6:11
and appearance fees. And those guys
6:13
didn't win a championship, and that was
6:15
30 years ago now, plus.
6:18
You win a title today
6:20
in a city like In a city like Buffalo or
6:23
Boston or New York or Philly, Chicago,
6:27
you win in a place like that, Cleveland,
6:30
Detroit,
6:31
you live forever. It's immortal. And
6:34
look, if the first team that wins a
6:36
championship in Buffalo is going to be
6:38
the Sabres and win a Stanley Cup, that
6:41
team, forget what the party's going to
6:43
be like, talk about living forever on
6:45
endorsements. So, in that way, I I don't
6:48
know if taking every last cent is worth
6:50
it for Alex Tuch. I mean, look, when I
6:52
was younger, I could make decisions
6:54
based on fit and on feel in my career
6:59
and where I thought the best role was
7:00
going to be. When I had a family and and
7:03
got married and had two kids, I started
7:05
thinking about guaranteed money and
7:07
security for the family. So, I
7:08
understand that, but I do think there's
7:10
something to be said for doing it in
7:13
Buffalo, and I think the reason is the
7:15
Sabres are closer, in my estimation, to
7:17
win a Stanley Cup than the Capitals are.
7:21
Number two, when it comes to Zach Benson
7:23
and that deal,
7:25
it's pretty obvious at 30 years old,
7:29
you're going to get the best of Alex
7:31
Tuch over the next two seasons.
7:33
For Zach Benson, you might not get the
7:37
best of Benson until two seasons from
7:40
now. So, think about your value of those
7:42
two deals.
7:44
One is going to consistently decrease
7:47
over the next 8 years. One will probably
7:50
in value increase over the next 7 years
7:54
because there's going to be a point in
7:55
time in the not-so-distant future
7:57
where Zach Benson's one of the two or
8:00
three most important people play pieces,
8:03
players on the Sabres. And it is
8:05
possible
8:06
at some point in the near future he's
8:08
the most important piece of the puzzle
8:10
for the Sabres.
8:12
You will have him at that rate, 7 and
8:14
1/2 million dollars a year when he
8:17
finally surges there. That could be next
8:19
season, could be two seasons from now,
8:20
but I would say within three seasons
8:22
from now Zach Benson will be one of the
8:25
two or three most important pieces of
8:28
the Sabres.
8:29
By that time, two or three years from
8:31
now,
8:33
is when you're going to see that steep
8:34
decline happening for Alex Tuch. We had
8:38
Shayna Goldman on Sabres and Six two
8:41
weeks ago. She's a hockey writer for The
8:43
Athletic, and she wrote a piece grading
8:46
this deal for the Washington Capitals,
8:48
and ultimately she gave them a B- minus,
8:50
and here's why.
8:52
Quote, "The 10 and 1/2 million-dollar
8:53
cap hit is a massive gamble."
8:57
She said, "Signing a contract like that
8:59
could be a cap anchor in the later
9:01
years."
9:03
Which isn't exactly the most promising
9:04
start to a playoff window for the
9:06
Sabres.
9:08
As she puts in here, "The risk is not
9:11
just that Tuch's stock is down after an
9:14
underwhelming second-round playoff
9:15
performance,
9:17
but he projects to be worth about 8.4
9:20
million dollars a year on average over
9:22
the next four seasons. So, you're
9:23
already overpaying him by 2 million
9:25
dollars a year over the next four years
9:27
by this stats and data.
9:29
But his market value projects to dip
9:31
below the 6 million-dollar mark in the
9:34
last three years of the deal.
9:37
Which means
9:39
most data and most experts around the
9:42
league believe
9:44
he will significantly dip in terms of
9:46
his production in his mid-30s and
9:49
comparisons to like Rick Nash.
9:53
Do you want to be on the hook for 10 and
9:55
1/2 million dollars per year? Now,
9:57
granted that the cap is growing,
9:59
but 10 and 1/2 million dollars a year
10:02
in years 4 5 6 7 8.
10:07
The answer is absolutely not.
10:09
And if it was going to have to be a win
10:11
right now proposition for the Sabres,
10:14
maybe you could make that argument. But
10:17
the reality is that's not the truth. The
10:19
truth is this is the start of a
10:22
hypothetical window opening up. And
10:26
while Tuck was an amazing piece to get
10:29
them here,
10:31
going forward, you just can't afford
10:33
that type of financial investment.
10:38
And Shayna ends off with
10:41
right now, he's an interesting fit for
10:44
the Capitals, but the big picture raises
10:48
a lot of red flags. And I think that's
10:51
absolutely the way that uh is a
10:53
realistic way of looking at things. So,
10:56
I think Kevyn Adams did the right thing
10:57
here and Alex Tuck is on his way to the
11:00
Washington Capitals and so long and
11:02
happy trails. But the big thing is you
11:04
get Zach Benson locked up right now at
11:06
that rate
11:08
and that feels like a deal that's going
11:10
to age really, really well versus a Tuck
11:13
deal that would have aged really, really
11:15
poorly.
11:16
Thanks for watching everybody.
11:17
Appreciate it as always. As I mentioned
11:19
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draft as well. We've had a lot of
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11:32
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11:35
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11:36
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>> [music]
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