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Up next in 10
D.A. is joined by Lindsay Rhodes, former NFL Network host and now a key voice at Sumer Sports, where the deepest football analytics live.
Self-described “nerd” (and proud of it), Lindsay dives into the numbers that actually matter, including:
• Whether the Denver Broncos run defense is a good or bad matchup for the Buffalo Bills
• How the Green Bay Packers decision to sag off the blitz backfired — and how Caleb Williams made them pay
• And why Josh Allen against pressure wasn’t just good — it was next-level great, backed by cold, hard data
This is analytics without the nonsense.
Stats that explain what your eyes already told you — and then turn the volume up.
If you want to know what’s really coming this weekend, this is the breakdown you need.
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0:01
Lacy, how are you? So good to see you.
0:05
So good to see you. So good to be seen.
0:07
So good to talk about these games.
0:09
I mean, we were gifted four absolutely
0:13
amazing games. It was four instant
0:16
classics and the Chargers
0:19
and another game that happened last
0:22
night. But the four game that we got
0:24
that were instant classics were all the
0:26
best drama and theater the NFL has to
0:28
offer. And we have to begin with what
0:31
happened at Soldier Field Saturday night
0:34
with the comeback of the Bears in terms
0:37
of Ben Johnson, Caleb Caleb Williams,
0:41
and that connection. What did you see
0:43
that they adjusted to in the second half
0:45
that helped the offense get going?
0:48
Well,
0:50
I want to frame it in a way that gives
0:53
them credit. there is a different way to
0:56
frame it, which is to say that the
0:57
Packers did some things that were
0:59
different down the stretch.
1:00
Uhhuh.
1:01
Um that maybe made it easier for the
1:04
Bears to do the things that they did in
1:06
the fourth quarter. Um namely they laid
1:09
off the blitz uh which had really caused
1:13
problems for Caleb in the first three
1:16
quarters uh the whole game frankly. uh
1:19
his numbers when blitzed. Uh so he had a
1:21
negative EPA. Uh without getting into
1:23
EPA, negative is bad. Positive is good
1:26
when you're on offense. Uh without a
1:28
blitz, he had an 11 EPA, which is very
1:33
very good. Like
1:35
what's the scale that we're talking
1:36
about? Zero to what?
1:38
I mean, uh actually don't know the
1:40
answer to that, but usually 11 numbers
1:42
that are like like anything plus is
1:45
good. Uh you could be like plus five
1:48
like plus six like like plus 11 means
1:51
means that on plays where he was not
1:53
blitzed there were like 11 expected
1:56
points added to the the point total of
1:58
the game.
1:59
So um just it's it's a big number. So my
2:04
point is uh that they let's see Halfley
2:08
blitzed Caleb in the third quarter at a
2:10
40% rate and then 13% rate in the fourth
2:14
and he started chucking it downfield um
2:18
and and had you know clean pockets with
2:21
which to do this and to get the ball
2:23
downfield and obviously wasn't his
2:25
completion percentage was like 50% or
2:27
something like that in the fourth
2:28
quarter but he was throwing it downfield
2:30
and connected on those and so they had
2:31
some explosives that allowed them to um
2:34
kind of go crazy in that order. So,
2:37
there were a lot of question marks and I
2:38
hate to pile on because I know there was
2:40
a lot of talk about uh Laflur, which is
2:42
a separate conversation that we can have
2:44
too, but I I feel like there were some
2:46
and this happens a lot like it happened
2:47
to the Panthers where people like
2:49
thought, you know, they started playing
2:50
prevent defense and then it all fell
2:52
apart in the Rams kind of like when you
2:54
are in this situation, you start doing
2:56
things differently as a defense down the
2:58
stretch. Um it could change the whole
3:00
complexion of the game and I kind of
3:01
think that that's part of what happened
3:02
there. Interesting. So Lindsay, for
3:05
those that don't know, works for Sumer
3:07
Sports, which is a tremendous arm.
3:10
Well, yeah, it's football nerdom, which
3:12
a lot of our listeners and audience
3:14
absolutely can relate to, and you guys
3:16
study the deep analytics of it and find
3:18
trends and find patterns and find
3:20
outliers, etc. So, it's interesting to
3:22
hear you talk about the numbers against
3:24
the Blitz in the second half. how much
3:27
blame lays at the foot of Matt Laflur
3:32
considering, you know, it felt like
3:34
everything that he touched turned to
3:35
gold in the first half and then he was
3:38
the one retreating on ice skates in the
3:41
second half coaching wise.
3:43
I think look, when it comes to making
3:45
those kinds of like having those
3:46
conversations about coaches, I think
3:48
coaches are in a really tough spot, you
3:50
know, and it's so much easier to look at
3:54
things in the rearview mirror and be
3:55
critical. And I don't necessarily like
3:57
doing that because um you know if things
3:59
had worked or or if a freaking field
4:01
goal had gone in or you know like if
4:04
that had gone in for for Baltimore are
4:07
we talking we're having Harbaugh's
4:09
preparing for a game right now right so
4:11
it's I mean they say that it's a it's a
4:13
game of inches and that's definitely the
4:15
case and this was a close game. It's not
4:17
like it completely fell apart. So, I
4:20
mean, although they were able to get
4:21
back in it, but uh yeah, I just I have I
4:25
have a tough time laying it all at the
4:27
hands of coaching. Um though sometimes,
4:31
you know, you take a swing and and you
4:32
miss and in this particular case, I
4:34
think that that's part of what happened.
4:36
Um Caleb's
4:38
one of those guys where I think that the
4:40
offense for the Bears got so much better
4:42
this year and Ben Johnson deserves all
4:44
of the credit that he's getting. There
4:46
are still things about it which we saw
4:47
in this game where like the completion
4:50
percentage is right around 50%. Like
4:52
Caleb's completion percentage on the
4:54
year I think in the regular season was
4:56
like 53. Like it's not a particularly
4:58
high completion percentage. So there are
5:00
things that he did this season to get
5:02
much better than he was last year.
5:04
Mostly a feel for how much time he had
5:06
in the pocket and understanding of how
5:08
that was going to work when he needed to
5:10
flush out. He had much better protection
5:12
on the O line this year than he did last
5:14
year too. But there there were
5:15
definitely there are steps that he has
5:17
taken this year, but there are still
5:19
things that um like a like the Rams the
5:22
Rams defense
5:25
uh you know I that that that's going to
5:27
be an interesting challenge for him I
5:29
think because they have the guys up
5:31
front and they have the guys on the back
5:32
end and they like to play with a bunch
5:34
of DBs and they don't have to blitz that
5:36
much because they can get pressure with
5:37
four. Like there's just there are a lot
5:39
of challenges. I like that matchup a lot
5:40
for the the Rams. So,
5:43
it'll be interesting to see how that
5:44
goes down this weekend.
5:46
I need to know the deep dive
5:48
statistically on how limp the Eagles
5:52
offense was on Sunday because it just
5:56
while it shouldn't be surprising, in
5:58
many ways it's crazy that they were
6:01
unable to fix this thing throughout the
6:03
entire year
6:04
knowing what the issues in play were.
6:06
Some of that is injuries to the
6:07
offensive line, but what what did you
6:09
guys see from the from the data that
6:12
came back from Sunday on the Eagles
6:14
wretched offensive performance?
6:15
So, let me tell everybody who's
6:17
listening right now real quick before I
6:19
answer that question. We um launched a
6:23
new product over the weekend or like a
6:25
new dashboard that you guys can go. I
6:26
guess it's not a new project product.
6:28
It's something that you can see on our
6:30
website. Everybody can. It's free. It's
6:32
ungated. Just go to sumersports.com and
6:35
you'll see stuff for Sumer live and you
6:37
can go down. You can click on the game
6:38
as it's happening. You can watch it
6:39
tonight for Texans Steelers and it has
6:42
all of this advanced data that is
6:45
charting data that usually all of us
6:47
nerds who care about these types of
6:49
things like personnel rates and coverage
6:51
rates and success in those various, you
6:53
know, all these different uh buckets.
6:56
All of that usually comes to us about
6:58
halfway through the day the next day and
7:01
we were getting it out live before the
7:03
next play. All of those metrics were
7:05
updating live in real time.
7:07
So I was in my infinite nerd nerd this
7:10
this weekend. literally went to watch
7:13
parties both days and I sat on the couch
7:16
with my laptop like I'm that person at
7:18
these nice but so because of that
7:21
right so you can see how how stories are
7:24
shifting as the game is happening which
7:25
is I think is fascinating um one of the
7:28
things that we have the ability to do is
7:30
break it down by route and one of the
7:33
things that stood out about the Eagles
7:35
offense which to your point I think the
7:38
bigger point there is that it just never
7:40
clicked in ways that I thought or like
7:42
why? Like I kept waiting for it to click
7:44
and I thought that it might in the
7:46
playoffs and then it just didn't. Um
7:48
just completely out of sync. They only
7:50
had positive passing EPA on hitches and
7:53
flat routes. Everything else was
7:56
negative EPA.
7:57
Wow.
7:57
Like so I mean and you know what that
8:00
paints a picture of, right? Like so
8:02
we're not moving the ball downfield.
8:04
Yeah.
8:05
With a great deal of success with any
8:07
kind of frequency. And um I mean and you
8:10
saw that with regards to AJ Brown like
8:13
never really getting on track like it
8:15
was like Devonte Smith if anything and
8:17
Dallas Goddard in the red zone and a AJ
8:20
Brown just never really and then you saw
8:22
that sideline outburst and I think that
8:25
that was just the perfect that moment
8:26
even though Tom Brady told us that they
8:28
loved each other. I felt like that
8:29
moment and even if they do love each
8:31
other, them yelling at each other was
8:34
the perfect snapshot of the Eagles
8:35
season this this year because it just
8:37
felt like everyone's frustrated all the
8:40
time because it just isn't working.
8:43
And I have a hard time believing that
8:44
they really love one another. I think
8:47
there might be a working relationship
8:48
and maybe at times they've saw they've
8:50
seen eye to eye, but I got a tough time
8:52
believing that those two guys love one
8:54
another.
8:55
Same
8:57
same. I think but I mean you know what
8:58
they might even like each other
8:59
personally but when somebody inhibits
9:01
your ability to be the best at what you
9:03
do professionally or what you love to do
9:06
in a way that makes it look like you
9:08
might not be good. Like I'm sure AJ
9:10
Brown was hearing it from people all
9:11
season like stop sucking, you know, do
9:14
this. And so I'm sure that there's a lot
9:16
of frustration and pent up kind of um
9:19
animosity that builds probably for both
9:22
parties if you feel like someone else is
9:23
standing in your way of proving that
9:25
you're good at what you do. So, I I
9:28
agree with you. I have a hard time
9:29
believing that they love each other at
9:31
this point.
9:32
The Bills found a way to win when they
9:34
did not run the football, and that was
9:36
going to be a difficult task considering
9:39
the wide receiver options that they're
9:40
down to right now.
9:42
Now, they'll take on the Denver Broncos.
9:45
Are the Broncos a better matchup to run
9:48
the football against, a worse matchup
9:51
than the Jaguars, or a push?
9:55
Let me pull up those numbers really
9:57
quick for you on the season. Um
10:01
because the Jaguars did a phenomenal
10:03
job.
10:04
They did great. Absolutely.
10:06
Pinning in James Cook. And when you do
10:08
that, you really make the Bills struggle
10:10
because as great as Josh Allen is, he
10:13
does not have wide receivers that
10:14
separate downfield. And so he's forced
10:16
to do a lot of underneath self with
10:17
Khalil Shakir, Dalton Concade, and
10:19
Dawson Knox. And if I'm not mistaken,
10:21
none of the wide receivers or tight ends
10:22
caught more than 30 yards. So, he had to
10:25
really spread it around. There just is
10:27
not a number one target. So, you got to
10:29
be able to run the football if you're
10:30
the Bills or you got to hold on for dear
10:32
life. And against this great Denver
10:34
Broncos defense, they definitely don't
10:36
want Josh to have to drop back 40 times
10:39
in this game. So, what does that look
10:41
like statwise, data-wise with the
10:43
Broncos defense?
10:45
Um, it looks like it's exactly the same
10:47
as the Jags.
10:48
Interesting. Like in terms of EPA per
10:50
rush in the regular season, I don't
10:54
think that these number Wait, hold on.
10:55
Actually, I'll know.
10:56
Nope. Yeah, these numbers have not
10:58
updated to include the the games from
11:00
this weekend, which makes sense. Um, the
11:03
Broncos are 14th in EPA per rush and the
11:08
Jacksonville Jaguars are 12th. And
11:10
there's like a minimal amount of
11:11
difference in terms of EPA per play. And
11:14
by the way, everybody who's listening
11:15
who's like, "What? I I don't know how
11:17
hardcore your your uh viewers are. EPA
11:22
is essentially like yards with context.
11:23
It just contextualizes the situation for
11:27
yards too. So rather than saying like
11:29
rushing yards or passing yards, it takes
11:31
into consideration the fact that you
11:33
know if you um pick up five yards on a
11:37
third and four, that's more valuable
11:39
than if you pick up eight yards on a
11:41
third and 10, right? So, it's just
11:43
contextualizing the yards and giving it
11:45
a different type of uh efficiency value.
11:49
So, that's why these numbers are kind of
11:52
what nerds like I like me like to look
11:54
at because it's taking the context of
11:57
the situation into consideration and
11:58
saying like we think that these numbers
12:01
are more predictive predictively telling
12:03
us who is good and what's likely to
12:05
continue to happen. Y
12:07
um regardless of the uh caliber of
12:09
competition, um the Jaguars defense was
12:12
third in the NFL in EPA per play this
12:14
year and the Broncos defense was eighth.
12:17
So that was actually from a success rate
12:19
standpoint. The the Jaguars are not a
12:21
team that consistently produces good
12:23
defense. They just make big plays and
12:25
that swings the EPA a lot. So, I think
12:27
that the Broncos, there's definitely a
12:29
story there that they are going to more
12:31
consistently present problems that
12:33
aren't just reliant on forcing a fumble
12:36
or getting an interception or something
12:38
like that. So, from a volatility
12:40
standpoint, it's going to be a tougher
12:41
matchup. I believe for Josh Allen, uh,
12:44
like you suggested, um, I think that it
12:48
will be,
12:50
uh, I think it I think it'll just come
12:53
down to
12:55
in a lot of ways Josh, frankly. I mean,
12:57
if you can get James Cook going,
12:59
certainly that makes it a lot better. Um
13:02
Josh Allen
13:04
was had a positive EPA per drop back
13:07
against pressure this past weekend which
13:09
is
13:10
crazy. Like I mean if you think about
13:13
like when they're bringing pressure you
13:14
are expected to have more bad results
13:17
than good results. Right. Right. So he
13:19
was in the regular season fifth in the
13:21
NFL with a narrowly negative EPA per
13:24
drop back versus pressure. Like one of
13:26
the best.
13:27
This week he was just over positive. So,
13:31
it feels like if you can do that against
13:34
pressure, even if pressure is coming,
13:36
which it's going to come against uh
13:38
against the Broncos,
13:41
uh does that perhaps neutralize one of
13:44
the massive strengths that the Broncos
13:46
have in this game? Because I look at uh
13:49
their offense and I don't necessarily I
13:51
feel like their offense is very like
13:53
middle of the pack. Like I don't look at
13:55
them in a playoff bigger picture and say
13:57
like the offense is definitely going to
13:59
get them to the Super Bowl. I think if
14:01
they get there it's going to be because
14:02
their defense is going to keep scores
14:04
down a lot and is Josh Allen the guy who
14:07
can just rip that entire concept to
14:09
shreds, right? But they don't have to
14:11
blitz. I mean they could they could get
14:13
pressure with four. Their back end is
14:15
insane. You've got like the coverage
14:17
could be locked down. Um, I I'm just
14:20
really interested to see what Josh does
14:21
with that more than anything else in
14:24
that game. Like, will he just overcome a
14:27
a rough defensive environment, you know?
14:30
Yeah, absolutely. That's super
14:31
interesting. From a coaching standpoint,
14:33
John Harbaugh seems to be the big fish
14:35
out there. Is there a fit you see that's
14:38
ideal for Harbaugh right now? So for me
14:42
it all comes down to where there's a a
14:46
quarterback or where there's a path to a
14:48
quarterback. Like I I have heard a lot
14:52
of Falcons and I'm sure that there that
14:57
what I'm struggling with there is that
14:59
there is a there is the potential with
15:02
their quarterback situation being what
15:03
it is. They don't have a first round
15:05
pick. They don't have that much cap
15:07
space. like I don't see a path to them
15:09
changing their quarterback situation
15:11
dramatically.
15:12
Um and so that worries me if I'm
15:14
Harbaugh and I'm looking for a place
15:16
where I need to be able to hit it out of
15:18
the park right away.
15:19
Um they're in a conference that's, you
15:21
know, arguably winnable. So there there
15:24
is that, but I just don't know what
15:26
you're going to do that's going to be
15:27
super impressive in year one or two
15:29
without the ability to change your
15:31
quarterback. So unless you see Michael
15:33
Pennix and you go, you know what, I can
15:35
do something very, very different here,
15:38
um, that pushes me towards the Giants,
15:41
who I think have a nice young offensive
15:43
core. And if you believe in Jackson
15:45
Dart, who I think can get it done for
15:47
you on the ground and in the air, I
15:48
liked what I saw from him in a small
15:49
sample size. Plus also then you get
15:51
Malik Neighbors back, you get Scataboo
15:53
back, like you've got, you know, Andrew
15:55
Thomas on the line. like I can start to
15:57
paint a picture of an offense that could
15:59
be productive quickly if everyone were
16:01
able to be healthy. The other one that I
16:04
think is interesting is the Raiders just
16:07
because of that number one overall pick
16:09
and your ability to tie yourself to a
16:11
quarterback. So, if you see someone in
16:12
this draft like Fernando Mendoza, if you
16:15
watch him and you think he is the next
16:18
franchise quarterback and you're sold,
16:21
attach him, attach yourself to him and
16:23
then you're going to get some time,
16:24
right? Like nobody's going to after one
16:26
year or two year with Fernando Mendoza
16:29
go like like it was with Pete Carol this
16:31
year go like done like you're gonna have
16:33
time to build him into something. So I
16:36
understand people saying that for other
16:38
reasons there are a lot of reasons to
16:40
not be particularly excited about the
16:42
Raiders organization.
16:44
I get that. But I think that I think
16:47
success in the NFL really is like if you
16:49
have a quarterback, you're on a path. If
16:51
you don't have a quarterback, you're
16:53
not. And so I think that those are
16:55
probably my my two favorite um most
16:58
intriguing. The Titans are another one
17:00
too. Uh if if you saw enough tape with
17:03
Cam Ward this year to think that you
17:05
could build that because you know you
17:06
can't write somebody off after one year
17:08
when you need so many other things
17:10
around you if you're Cam Ward.
17:13
Lindsay was a longtime member of the NFL
17:15
network. She also has worked for Direct
17:18
TV and Sirius XM my current home and
17:22
Sumer Sports. If you're a football
17:24
afficionado, a football fan, a hardcore
17:27
football fan, it is a phenomenal
17:29
service. You want to tell everybody how
17:31
they can kind of get connected to Sumer
17:32
Sports and all the work that you guys
17:34
are doing?
17:34
Yeah, sumerports.com. We've got links to
17:36
everything. We have free data pages. So,
17:39
like this how I went and looked up the
17:40
EPA, you know, where the Broncos ranked
17:42
and where the Jaguars ranked and all
17:44
that kind of stuff. You guys could do
17:44
that, too. It's not gated. It's
17:46
completely free. Just go to the data
17:48
section on the site and then I I highly
17:51
suggest because as somebody who looks
17:53
for this data regularly, I know that
17:55
it's not out there, frankly. So, if you
17:58
want to go kind of open it up tonight
17:59
during the game, sumersports.comlive
18:02
or justports.com and just click on the
18:05
stuff that gets you to the game tonight,
18:06
the Steelers and Texans. Um, and just
18:08
kind of follow it along on a second
18:10
screen. I think that you'll find it's
18:11
really fun.
18:12
Very cool. Is your bathroom breaks
18:15
halftime,
18:17
commercial breaks, or whenever it
18:18
happens?
18:20
Not during action.
18:21
Okay.
18:22
Never during action. I mean,
18:24
okay. You won't pause and get back to
18:26
it.
18:26
No, no, no pausing either. I don't want
18:28
to be behind. Then I'm behind
18:29
everywhere. I'm behind on Twitter. I'm
18:31
behind in the data, the dashboards.
18:33
Like, David, no. What are you talking
18:35
about? There's no leaving the couch.
18:37
Halftime. Let me answer the It is
18:38
halftime. And only half time. Yes. And
18:41
so a regular commercial break, no way.
18:43
You got to wait till halftime.
18:45
No, there's too much like what happened
18:47
during that? I got to, you know, get it
18:49
all framed properly. No. I've seen a lot
18:51
lately about people with ADHD like
18:54
holding it until they're ready to
18:56
explode. And I'm like, is that my
18:58
problem? Am I undiagnosed? Cuz that's
19:01
100% me. No, there's no I will I will
19:05
get the task done. We are not leaving.
19:09
I am not Lamar Jackson. I will not leave
19:11
in the middle of the game for a bathroom
19:13
break.
19:16
Always great to catch up, Lindsay.
19:18
Thanks so much. You too, Damon.
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