As we saw last week, Syracuse’s movement in the CFP Rankings has a lot to do with what teams do around it. Last week, the Orange moved up six spots from 19 to 13 after beating Wake Forest on the road.¬†SU leapfrogged Texas, Iowa, Utah, Penn State and Florida who somehow all lost their week 10 games. Now there are only twelve teams in front of Syracuse.
I’ll use implied win probability from betting odds to project next week’s results. Then I’ll run a simulation three times, and see where SU ends up in the rankings.
(1) Alabama vs. (16) Mississippi State
Moneyline: BAMA -400
Implied Win Probability: 97.6%
Simulation: W, W, W
(2) Clemson at (17) Boston College
Moneyline: CLEM -1000
Implied Win Probability: 90.9%
Simulation: W,W,W
(3) Notre Dame vs. Florida State
Moneyline: ND -1050
Implied Win Probability: 91.3%
Simulation: W, W, W
(4) Michigan at Rutgers
Moneyline: Not Available (Spread is -37)
Implied Win Probability: Essentially 99.9%
Simulation: W, W, W
(5) Georgia vs. (24) Auburn
Moneyline: UGA -600
Implied Win Probability: 85.7%
Simulation: W, W, L
(6) Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
Moneyline: OKLA -1000
Implied Win Probability: 90.9%
Simulation: W, W, L
(7) LSU vs. Arkansas
Moneyline: LSU -500
Implied Win Probability: 83.3%
Simulation: W, W, W
(8) Washington State at Colorado
Moneyline: WSU -200
Implied Win Probability: 66.7%
Simulation: W, W, L
(9) West Virginia vs. TCU
Moneyline: WVU -600
Implied Win Probability: 85.7%
Simulation: W, W, W
(10) Ohio State at (18) Michigan State
Moneyline: OSU -175
Implied Win Probability: 63.6%
Simulation: W, L, L
(11) Kentucky at Tenessee
Moneyline: UK -180
Implied Win Probability: 64.3%
Simulation: L, W, L
(12) UCF vs. Navy
Moneyline: UCF -3500
Implied Win Probability: 97.2%
Simulation: W, W, W
(13) Syracuse vs. Louisville
Moneyline: SYR -1450
Implied Win Probability: 93.5%
Simulation: W, W, W
Simulation 1: Syracuse moves up to 12 with Kentucky loss
Simulation 2: Syracuse moves up to 12 with Ohio State loss
Simulation 3: Syracuse moves up to 10 with Kentucky, Ohio State and Washington State losses. In another upset heavy week, Oklahoma and Georgia also lose, but they stay ahead of Syracuse. 
This provides a decent sense of the likely outcomes for next week. Syracuse will probably beat Louisville. If it does, a one-spot jump in the rankings seems most likely, but a top-10 berth is within the realm of possibility.
Note: Placing your Saturday wagers based on the simulations in this article is not a recommended strategy.
