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Can SU Football Crack the Top 10 Next Week?

As we saw last week, Syracuse’s movement in the CFP Rankings has a lot to do with what teams do around it. Last week, the Orange moved up six spots from 19 to 13 after beating Wake Forest on the road. SU leapfrogged Texas, Iowa, Utah, Penn State and Florida who somehow all lost their week 10 games. Now there are only twelve teams in front of Syracuse.

I’ll use implied win probability from betting odds to project next week’s results. Then I’ll run a simulation three times, and see where SU ends up in the rankings.

(1) Alabama vs. (16) Mississippi State

Moneyline: BAMA -400

Implied Win Probability: 97.6%

Simulation: W, W, W

(2) Clemson at (17) Boston College

Moneyline: CLEM -1000

Implied Win Probability: 90.9%

Simulation: W,W,W

(3) Notre Dame vs. Florida State

Moneyline: ND -1050

Implied Win Probability: 91.3%

Simulation: W, W, W

(4) Michigan at Rutgers

Moneyline: Not Available (Spread is -37)

Implied Win Probability: Essentially 99.9%

Simulation: W, W, W

(5) Georgia vs. (24) Auburn

Moneyline: UGA -600

Implied Win Probability: 85.7%

Simulation: W, W, L

(6) Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State

Moneyline: OKLA -1000

Implied Win Probability: 90.9%

Simulation: W, W, L

(7) LSU vs. Arkansas

Moneyline: LSU -500

Implied Win Probability: 83.3%

Simulation: W, W, W

(8) Washington State at Colorado

Moneyline: WSU -200

Implied Win Probability: 66.7%

Simulation: W, W, L

(9) West Virginia vs. TCU

Moneyline: WVU -600

Implied Win Probability: 85.7%

Simulation: W, W, W

(10) Ohio State at (18) Michigan State

Moneyline: OSU -175

Implied Win Probability: 63.6%

Simulation: W, L, L

(11) Kentucky at Tenessee

Moneyline: UK -180

Implied Win Probability: 64.3%

Simulation: L, W, L

(12) UCF vs. Navy

Moneyline: UCF -3500

Implied Win Probability: 97.2%

Simulation: W, W, W

(13) Syracuse vs. Louisville

Moneyline: SYR -1450

Implied Win Probability: 93.5%

Simulation: W, W, W

 

Simulation 1: Syracuse moves up to 12 with Kentucky loss

Simulation 2: Syracuse moves up to 12 with Ohio State loss

Simulation 3: Syracuse moves up to 10 with Kentucky, Ohio State and Washington State losses. In another upset heavy week, Oklahoma and Georgia also lose, but they stay ahead of Syracuse. 

This provides a decent sense of the likely outcomes for next week. Syracuse will probably beat Louisville. If it does, a one-spot jump in the rankings seems most likely, but a top-10 berth is within the realm of possibility.

 

Note: Placing your Saturday wagers based on the simulations in this article is not a recommended strategy.

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