This year marks the beginning of a new era of ACC football. The Atlantic and Coastal divisions have been abolished, and the participants in the conference title game will be determined by overall record against ACC opponents.
The schedule format has changed as well, with the ACC adopting a 3-5-3 approach. That sees each school play three permanent rivals, and rotate among the other eight teams, playing five of them and missing the other five every year.
ESPN came out with analytics that assign a percent chance of each team making it to the conference title game, and the numbers don’t look too bad for Syracuse. The Orange slot in 8th with a 7% chance of being one of the final two teams standing.
Now, obviously that doesn’t bode well for Syracuse on the surface, but if you keep expectations realistic and look at which teams are behind it, it looks much better. Four of the Orange’s opponents this year are behind them, while four are ahead.
The four ahead Clemson (72%), Florida State (50%), North Carolina (20%) and Pitt (14%). Those are the top teams in the entire conference and Syracuse will have a tough road to navigate through when it comes to those four.
However, SU’s other four ACC opponents all clock in below the Orange on the list. The highest is Wake Forest, given just a 4% chance. Syracuse’s other three conference foes all have less than a 1% chance of going to the ACC title game, those being Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Boston College.
The goal for Syracuse should be to make a bowl game, and based on these numbers, the Orange should do just that. Of its four non-conference games, SU should be expected to win three, those being Colgate, Western Michigan and Army with a trip to Purdue representing a big early challenge.
Assuming Syracuse takes care of business in that stretch, that would mean Syracuse would need only three victories in ACC play to secure six wins and a place in a bowl game. Looking at the list of opponents and the way they stack up in the conference, that should certainly be doable.
Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Boston College are all expected to be worse than SU, with three of those teams projected among the conference’s bottom five. Wake Forest and Boston College visit the Dome, while Syracuse has to go to Blacksburg and Atlanta this year. So, while the ACC Championship is not likely, the numbers suggest that a bowl game could be in the cards for a second straight year.
