Forecasting the outcome of sports matches is an age-old practice, and thanks to greater accessibility to statistics, deep analysis, the media and even betting tips, bettors now have wonderful access to tools that can help them gain an edge.
Still, at the end of the day, even with a strong forecast, there is another element that needs to work with the bettor and that is luck. No matter how many forecasting skills a person has, they still need luck on their side for a day.
Luck is more heavily associated with playing casino games, especially with slot machines as they don’t require strategy. From a crypto casino Philippines to the leading operators in the USA and Europe, there are many basketball-themed slots available, like Dragon Gaming’s Basketball Legends and Microgaming’s Basketball Star. But is it easier to predict the outcome of a slot session or a real basketball game?
Lady Luck Has Her Say
Whenever you are trying to predict something, you need luck on your side. Luck is a subjective concept that can either be positive or negative depending on how things work out for you.
Luck is something that typically is used to describe the emotional impact of what is simply a random event. That’s slightly different to chance because chance relates to probability, such as what number will come up on the roll of a die, or how many three-pointers Steph Curry will drain in a match.
Predicting Outcomes of Basketball Matches
Bettors try to eliminate as much chance as they can when trying to predict the outcome of a basketball match. To do that, statistics come into play because they help to paint a picture of things in black and white.
Statistics like head-to-head, current form, player points, rebounds and assists are all weighty factors that can help determine what the outcome of a match may be. When looking at betting odds, those are representatives of the implied probability of an outcome happening, like -175 odds on the moneyline depicting a 63.6% chance.
The Big Difference With Basketball Slots
So is there any way to take over that analytic approach to forecasting basketball games and apply it to slot machines at online casinos? The answer is no. There is nothing strategy-wise that you can do to increase your chance of winning on a slot, as they are designed to not follow systematic patterns.
They are operated by Random Number Generators, which completely randomise the outcome of each spin. That, combined with the Return To Player Percentage (RTP), volatility and other game mechanics, means there’s nothing you can pinpoint to help you shoot for a big jackpot.
You cannot sit down and analyse previous data about how a slot machine has performed, for example. On a slot with a high RTP of say 98%, you would expect to win $98 for every $100 played, but because of the RNG, there’s no telling when the payouts are going to drop.
You could play $500 for example and perhaps only make 30% of that back, but another player comes along, drops in $1 and hits a big win – the RTP is therefore an expected average.
The Probabilities
For a clearer picture, let’s go back to the above example, where a team may be at -175 to win a basketball match. A bookmaker is not going to set the odds as strong as that for no reason. They do a lot of research to set their lines and as they make them as accurate as possible, they can be a good forecasting guide to go by.
Let’s move the example even further. Team A is at -750 to win a match and Team B is at +525 which is only roughly a 15% chance. Those are still better odds than scoring a jackpot from a basketball slot where you are looking at anything from 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 100 million chance, depending on the complexity and mechanics of the machine.
The odds on a jackpot are very low, therefore, and compounding the issue is a lack of ability to forecast what is going to happen. The next spin you make has nothing about the previous one as it’s all just random.
But slots like EvoPlay’s Basketball are still popular because it’s not always about the jackpot, but about the bonus games and the features and the sheer will to beat the chance for any winning return, is why people still play them.
