The hits keep on coming for Syracuse basketball. The fans want Adrian Autry fired. Mike Waters reported the school has been woefully behind the times in its NIL plan. And now data proves the transfer portal has not been kind to the Orange (as though we needed a reminder).
Jim Boeheim recently said SU had targeted better players in the portal but wasn’t able to afford them. Uh oh. In a piece for Syracuse.com, Chris Carlson delved into the last two offseason and the talent import/export.
Evan Miyakawa is a data scientist who has a PhD in statistics. He has worked for years at a sports analytics company and developed a rating system. SU’s collective apparently used his ratings as a guide to specific values of transfers.
To give you a sense of how Syracuse has done, Eddie Lampkin has been the most productive (and highest ranked) transfer for SU in the last two years. Yet his BPR rating isn’t even in the top 35 of ACC transfers in the last two years. And only three ACC schools (Virginia, Boston College, Miami) haven’t landed a transfer with a better rating than Lampkin. In other words, the best SU has done is near the bottom of the ACC.
In terms of transfer point guards in the ACC, Jaquan Carlos ranks 6th of 8, and is the biggest disappointment in the ratings. His expected BPR was 3.04 in the preseason and he’s netted only 1.39. Compare that Boopie Miller at SMU who had the same BPR preseason (3.04) yet has overachieved at 4.09.
“Chris Bell has SU’s lowest BPR with a score of .01,” writes Carlson. “A mark that labels him barely better than average across all levels of Division I and one of the league’s biggest underachievers.”
Jyare Davis has struggled in his expanded role this season. “Davis ranks 16th among the ACC’s 18 starters at his position, according to Miyakawa. Miyakawa would have ranked him 11th among the league’s starting forwards during the preseason.” Half of the starting power forwards in the conference are transfers this season. Davis ranks last in BPR.
Lucas Taylor is also in over his head according to the data. His BPR currently ranks him 17th out of the 18 starters in the ACC and last among the transfer small forwards in the ACC. Yikes.
None of this is all that shocking. The Orange have one of their worst season in decades, and are fighting just to make the ACC Tournament. But considering the last two weeks of news around the program, it only fuels the criticism that the leadership has been severely lacking. The school apparently was ill-equipped for the NIL era, the coaching has been unable to maximize the talent, and the best fits were too costly for the Orange to net.
