Syracuse football dropped to 14th in ESPN‘s latest ACC Power Index, dropping into the bottom quarter of the conference after its season-opening 45-26 loss to No. 24 Tennessee.
The index measures a team’s strength and predicts how well a team will perform for the rest of the season, based on a points system that shows how above or below average a team is. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
The projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season by ESPN using the index, current results, and the remaining schedule.
The Orange currently have an FPI of 0.4, slightly above the average. That number projects them to win between 4.5 and 7.5 games this season, which ranks them as the 66th-best team in the country.
In the ACC, Syracuse is only ahead of Stanford, North Carolina, and Wake Forest, all of whom have a negative rating.
ESPN also has Syracuse’s odds to win 6 games and become bowl-eligible this season at just 21.2%, suggesting the FPI thinks the Orange will end up on the lower end of their win projection. Syracuse’s odds to win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff are much lower, with odds of only 0.2%.
While it’s concerning that the Orange are ranked so low to start the season, there’s still plenty of time for them to move up, as a home date with UConn this weekend should give Syracuse a great opportunity to get back in the win column.
It’s also worth noting that the projections can be wrong. Last season, the Orange finished at No. 20 in the AP poll after its historic upset of then-No. 6 Miami despite ranking as the 49th-best team in the FPI index.
Having a strong head coach is something the index can’t account for, and with Fran Brown in charge, he’ll likely have the Orange doing everything they can to overcome their low FPI rating.
