Syracuse football remained at 14th in ESPN‘s latest ACC Power Index. The Orange remain at the bottom of the conference despite getting back into the win column this week, earning a 27-20 overtime win over UConn after losing 45-26 in its season opener to then-No. 22 Tennessee.
The index measures a team’s strength and predicts how well a team will perform for the rest of the season, based on a points system that shows how above or below average a team is. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
The projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season by ESPN using the index, current results, and the remaining schedule.
Coming into its matchup against UConn with an FPI of 0.4, slightly above the average of 0, the Orange improved its FPI to 0.6. In addition to moving up one spot in the national rankings to 65th, Syracuse’s win totals also shifted slightly, moving from a 4.5-7.5 win projection this season to a 4.9-7.1 win projection.
While Syracuse’s floor increased with the win, the Orange struggled to beat UConn and needed an improbable fourth-quarter comeback to make it happen, which likely contributed to the lower ceiling.
The Orange are still ahead of Stanford, North Carolina, and Wake Forest in the ACC, and just 0.2 behind Duke, whom they’ll take on in Week 5.
ESPN bumped up Syracuse’s odds to win 6 games and become bowl-eligible this season from 21.2% to 31.9%, while Syracuse’s odds to win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff remained at almost 0, with odds of only 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.
While every game from now on should be treated as a must-win given the difficulty of Syracuse’s schedule, a home date with Colgate in Week 3 should help the Orange get one step closer to the six wins it needs to be bowl-eligible.
Colgate might be one of the weaker opponents Syracuse will face this season, but if last week’s scare against UConn was any indication, it’s that the Orange will need to play better to eliminate any chance of a damaging upset.
Head coach Fran Brown was livid with his players after narrowly avoiding the upset against UConn, and he’ll likely bring the same intensity against Colgate.
