What a difference a week makes.
Syracuse football suffered a steep decline in ESPN‘s latest FPI rankings, dropping from 53rd to 73rd after a 38-3 blowout loss in the JMA Wireless Dome to the Duke Blue Devils. Making matters worse, the loss came on the university’s family weekend, making it an even tougher pill to swallow for head coach Fran Brown and the Orange.
The index measures a team’s strength and predicts how well a team will perform for the rest of the season, based on a points system that shows how above or below average a team is. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
The projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season by ESPN using the index, current results, and the remaining schedule.
Coming into its matchup against Duke, the Orange looked to climb into the top-50 teams in the country with a win over its ACC rival. Instead, the embarrassing loss pushed Syracuse in the opposite direction as its FPI rating dropped to -1.5.
In addition to dropping 20 spots in the national rankings to 73rd, Syracuse’s win totals also shifted, as ESPN’s model gives the Orange just a 36% chance to win six games and secure a bowl game appearance this season.
Syracuse is now projected to win between 5.2-6.8 games, also a drop-off from last week. In the conference, the Orange are only ahead of Stanford, Wake Forest and North Carolina at the very bottom.
Syracuse’s odds to win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff remained at 0, a feat that would have been difficult even if Steve Angeli didn’t tear his Achilles. After Rickie Collins struggled in his first start, throwing no touchdowns and an interception, the chances of winning even six games feel low.
Collins and the Orange will get a chance to redeem themselves in Saturday’s matchup against SMU, where Syracuse would drop to .500 on the season with another loss.
