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Vegas & the Computers Like Syracuse’s Chances Far More Than You Do

Unbiased observers think there’s a 40% shot SU is dancing to the Elite 8.

New York Daily News

Gameday is here and Orange Nation has had an entire week to chew down its fingernails in anticipation of one of the most unpredictable Syracuse teams ever. You’ve probably battled with SU in your own office pool; go with the heart, or choose with your head? You might be surprised to learn Las Vegas likely has more confidence in the ‘Cuse than even you do. Apparently the Vegas sharks haven’t seen Scoop turn the ball over on the fast break or this offense bog down into a bad And 1 mixtape. Or they’re betting the public hasn’t.

Bodog.com has listed the ‘Cuse’s odds for the tournament and they’re pretty good.

Syracuse’s odds to win the National Championship: 20/1.

(Favorite: Kansas 4/1)

Syracuse’s odds to win the East Region: 17/4 or approximately 4/1.

(Favorite: Ohio State 7:5)

Syracuse’s odds for Most Outstanding Player: Scoop Jardine, Rick Jackson, Kris Josepeph all are 40/1.

(Favorite: Kansas’ Marcus Morris 11/2)

FizzCast: Listen to our analysis of SU’s bracket

Meantime, PredictionMachine.com “runs every game 50,000 times before it’s actually played once and comes up with a comprehensive breakdown of every game.” Once again, the stats reflect a good chance we see Syracuse March magic. Maybe it’s our Orange paranoia after losing six of eight this season. Could it be the hangover after last season’s squad bombed in the Sweet 16? There’s always the possibility we’ve just seen too many tourney flameouts for The Per’fesser before. But the computer probably likes the SU chances more than you do.

After running the East region hundreds of thousands of times, here’s how the numbers break on Syracuse advancing each round.

Beat Indiana State: 91% of the time. Good, but probably not high enough for Orange Nation.

Advanced to the Sweet 16: 59% of the simulations. The Orange’s most-likely opponent? Interestingly Marquette, which won 55% of its matchups against Xavier.

Advanced to the Elite 8: 40% of the time. The computer fascinatingly said the Orange has a much better chance to getting to the round of eight than the #2 seed in the region UNC, which advanced there only 28% of the time.

Advanced to the Final Four: 22% of the simulations. Which is probably higher than any set of office pools outside of CNY.

Advanced to the title game: 11% of the time. Is Deep Blue actually a Jim Boeheim fan? That seems a tad high.

Won the National Championship: 5.7% of the simulations. So, you’re saying there’s a chance…

Prepare for tonight’s game with The Fizz’s week-long analysis:

Posted: D.A.


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