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Carter-Williams Leaves Syracuse for NBA: Fizz Challenges Conventional Wisdom

Just basing a decision on draft place is losing sight of long-term gain in the NBA.

SUathletics.com

It was an absolute no-brainer for Michael Carter-Williams to enter the 2013 NBA Draft. Or was it? Under the current system and conventional wisdom the answer is definitively yes. Carter-Williams, despite being a sophomore, is already 21 which is old for his draft class. This draft isn’t just weak, it has the potential to be the worst of the modern era. It’s so bad a possible #1 overall pick is injured. This year Nerlens Noel follows in ’00 Kenyon Martin’s footsteps. He was followed by such gems as Stromile Swift, Darius Miles and Marcus Fizer.

MCW will be a lottery pick and might even squeeze into the top 10 with solid workouts and the right draft order. With that projection, the prevailing thought is “go and get your money because you probably won’t be drafted as high next year.” It sounds simple and really is in terms of short-term business. Because of the unpredictable nature of sports, this has become standard wisdom. Should it be?

This isn’t going to be about getting a degree, although there’s unquestionable value in that. This is about basketball. There’s no doubt Carter-Williams  – and almost everyone else in this draft – could use more college basketball before heading to the NBA. Noel has an extremely limited offensive game. Ben McLemore needs to be more aggressive and develop an off-the-dribble game. Marcus Smart’s jump shot is erratic, and he’s very unrefined as a point guard. Those are your top 3 picks.

If those players return to school, are they better players next year? Unquestionably, but for some reason that makes them less coveted prospects. The NBA loves potential and part of that is the unknown. The thought that development stops when a player leaves for the NBA is silly, but you do have to play to develop. Noel, Smart and McLemore will likely play solid rotation minutes next year… but a guy like Carter-Williams is probably looking at a role like Kendall Marshall has with the Suns. He plays less than 15 minutes per game, spending most of his time on the pine, carrying bags and getting donuts for the vets.

If Carter-Williams returned to Syracuse and played 30+ minutes per game, got coaching from a hall of famer, and became a better basketball player, it would surely help him down the road. It could hurt him on his rookie contract, based solely on what pick you are in the draft. But what about all the ensuing contracts that will be based on NBA production?

Think of Shane Battier. He’s been in the league over a decade now doing seemingly the same things he did at Duke. Battier was the rare top 5 pick as a senior, but he was NBA ready as a rookie and has stayed in the rotation for a lengthy career. His teams have always won, and was highly coveted by Miami on the open market. The other end of the spectrum is Sebastian Telfair, who jumped to the pros out of high school. He will never be in a rotation on a winning team and hasn’t played more than 20 mpg for any of his 5 teams the last 4 seasons. Who’s had a more lucrative career? Battier has brought in over $50M in his career since ’01, including $7.3 two years ago in Memphis. Telfair has earned $16M since ’04, topping out at $2.7M last year.

It’s happened to a ton of Syracuse players. Dion Waiters stayed an extra year and it absolutely helped him. Jonny Flynn and Wes Johnson chose to leave early, and it’s seemed to hurt them in the long run.

There are also plenty of guys who have left early (or gone straight to the NBA) and done well. LeBron James is only the best player on the planet. Kobe used to be. But when Cody Zeller might “get exposed” by going back to school that’s a problem in our thinking. Maryland’s Alex Len is slotted one spot higher than Zeller in Chad Ford’s latest mock draft, despite unquestionably not being ready to play in the NBA. If Len declares now but Zeller has a solid NBA career down the road, and earns a bigger second contract than Len who made the right decision?

The nature of sports says we shouldn’t ever look past the first contract, but if we do we’d see the shame in the current setup. What’s best now isn’t really always what’s best later. Where a player is drafted matters, but it shouldn’t be the only thing. What should matter is what’s truly best for the player’s career, which includes everything from short term financial gain, long term success and a degree.

For a guy like McLemore, there’s zero question he should go. His mom struggles to keep the power and heat on. He needs to take care of his family right now. Carter-Williams might very well be in that same boat. There’s no question his family could use some immediate money after their house caught fire. For those two cases, and many others, the answer might be an overwhelming “go.” But the next time a player’s decision to leave early is called a “no-brainer,” it’s time we started using our brains.

Posted: Craig Hoffman

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    {Wow|Whoa|Incredible|Amazing}! This blog looks {exactly|just} like my
    old one! It’s on a {completely|entirely|totally} different {topic|subject} but
    it has pretty much the same {layout|page layout} and design. {Excellent|Wonderful|Great|Outstanding|Superb} choice of colors!|
    {There is|There’s} {definately|certainly} {a lot to|a great deal to} {know about|learn about|find out about} this {subject|topic|issue}.

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    points there. I {looked|checked} {on the internet|on the web|on the net} {for more info|for more information|to find out more|to learn more|for additional information} about the issue and found
    {most individuals|most people} will go along with your views on {this website|this site|this web site}.|
    {Hi|Hello|Hi there|What’s up}, I {log on to|check|read}
    your {new stuff|blogs|blog} {regularly|like every week|daily|on a regular basis}.

    Your {story-telling|writing|humoristic} style is {awesome|witty}, keep {doing what you’re doing|up the good work|it
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    I {simply|just} {could not|couldn’t} {leave|depart|go away} your {site|web site|website}
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    {check up on|check out|inspect|investigate cross-check} new posts|
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    {Hi|Hello|Hi there|What’s up}, just wanted to {mention|say|tell you}, I {enjoyed|liked|loved} this {article|post|blog post}.

    It was {inspiring|funny|practical|helpful}. Keep on posting!|
    {Hi there|Hello}, I enjoy reading {all of|through} your {article|post|article post}.
    I {like|wanted} to write a little comment to support you.|
    I {always|constantly|every time} spent my half an hour to read this
    {blog|weblog|webpage|website|web site}’s {articles|posts|articles
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    I {always|for all time|all the time|constantly|every time}
    emailed this {blog|weblog|webpage|website|web site} post page to
    all my {friends|associates|contacts}, {because|since|as|for the reason that} if like
    to read it {then|after that|next|afterward} my {friends|links|contacts} will too.|
    My {coder|programmer|developer} is trying to {persuade|convince} me to move to .net
    from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the {expenses|costs}.
    But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using {Movable-type|WordPress} on {a number of|a variety of|numerous|several|various} websites for
    about a year and am {nervous|anxious|worried|concerned} about switching to another platform.

    I have heard {fantastic|very good|excellent|great|good}
    things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can {transfer|import} all my wordpress {content|posts} into it?

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    I could have sworn I’ve {been to|visited} {this blog|this web site|this website|this site|your blog} before but after {browsing through|going through|looking at} {some
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    {Anyways|Anyhow|Nonetheless|Regardless}, I’m {definitely|certainly} {happy|pleased|delighted} {I found|I discovered|I came
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    {Disgrace|Shame} on {the {seek|search} engines|Google} for
    {now not|not|no longer} positioning this {post|submit|publish|put up} {upper|higher}!
    Come on over and {talk over with|discuss with|seek advice from|visit|consult with} my {site|web site|website} .

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    Heya {i’m|i am} for the first time here. I {came across|found}
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    {A person|Someone|Somebody} {necessarily|essentially} {lend a hand|help|assist} to make
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    with the {research|analysis} you made to {create|make} {this actual|this particular} {post|submit|publish|put up} {incredible|amazing|extraordinary}.

    {Great|Wonderful|Fantastic|Magnificent|Excellent} {task|process|activity|job}!|
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    {Hi|Hello} there, {I found|I discovered} your {blog|website|web
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    {I will|I’ll} {appreciate|be grateful} {if you|should you|when you|in the event you|in case you|for those who|if
    you happen to} {continue|proceed} this {in future}.
    {A lot of|Lots of|Many|Numerous} {other folks|folks|other people|people} {will be|shall
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    writing. Cheers!|
    {I am|I’m} curious to find out what blog {system|platform} {you have been|you
    happen to be|you are|you’re} {working with|utilizing|using}?
    I’m {experiencing|having} some {minor|small} security {problems|issues}
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    to find something more {safe|risk-free|safeguarded|secure}.
    Do you have any {solutions|suggestions|recommendations}?|
    {I am|I’m} {extremely|really} impressed with your writing skills
    {and also|as well as} with the layout on your {blog|weblog}.
    Is this a paid theme or did you {customize|modify} it yourself?
    {Either way|Anyway} keep up the {nice|excellent} quality writing,
    {it’s|it is} rare to see a {nice|great} blog like
    this one {these days|nowadays|today}.|
    {I am|I’m} {extremely|really} {inspired|impressed} {with your|together with
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    with the {layout|format|structure} {for your|on your|in your|to your} {blog|weblog}.
    {Is this|Is that this} a paid {subject|topic|subject matter|theme} or did you
    {customize|modify} it {yourself|your self}? {Either way|Anyway} {stay|keep} up the {nice|excellent} {quality|high quality}
    writing, {it’s|it is} {rare|uncommon} {to peer|to see|to look}
    a {nice|great} {blog|weblog} like this one {these days|nowadays|today}..|
    {Hi|Hello}, Neat post. {There is|There’s} {a problem|an issue} {with your|together with your|along with your} {site|web site|website} in {internet|web} explorer, {may|might|could|would} {check|test} this?

    IE {still|nonetheless} is the {marketplace|market} {leader|chief} and {a large|a
    good|a big|a huge} {part of|section of|component to|portion of|component of|element of} {other
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    {I’m|I am} not sure where {you are|you’re} getting your {info|information},
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    {Hi|Hello}, i think that i saw you visited my {blog|weblog|website|web site|site} {so|thus} i came to “return the favor”.{I am|I’m} {trying to|attempting to} find things to {improve|enhance} my {website|site|web site}!I suppose its ok to use {some
    of|a few of} your ideas!!\

  40. Hey there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your post seem to be running off the screen in Chrome. I’m not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with browser compatibility but I thought I’d post to let you know. The design and style look great though! Hope you get the issue fixed soon. Thanks

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  43. I am curious to find out what blog system you have been utilizing? I’m having some minor security problems with my latest blog and I would like to find something more safeguarded. Do you have any suggestions?

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  45. Hi there! This is kind of off topic but I need some advice from an established blog. Is it very hard to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick. I’m thinking about creating my own but I’m not sure where to begin. Do you have any ideas or suggestions? Cheers

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